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August off-season is not short, optimistic about the cycle of the manufacturers and profitability of the big dealers

source:      2017-3-17 15:58:37      Click:
August off-season is not short, optimistic about the cycle of the manufacturers and profitability of the big dealers
August sales rose 24.2% year on year. SUV market segments and 1.6 liters and the following models were benefiting from consumer preferences and purchase tax incentives to become a passenger car growth engine. Commercial vehicle market continued to pick up, benefiting from low base year and strong demand for logistics trucks.

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September industry will enter the traditional sales season, the market is still expected to maintain a high degree of prosperity. September sales forecast growth of 15-16% in September, fourth quarter base year high, is expected to grow 6-8%. Increase annual sales growth forecast to 10% (previously 7-8%), the initial sales growth is expected in 2017 5%

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The recent external market turmoil or spread to Hong Kong stocks, it is recommended to absorb the product cycle up and down, 2016 - 17 years of high growth of the vehicle company Geely Automobile and Brilliance China. At the same time pay appropriate attention to the low valuation of the Great Wall Motor, the future profitability of the larger elasticity of the dealers are through the car and the harmonious car

Car sales in August off-season is not short, the industry in September is still maintained a high degree of prosperity

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According to the Auto Association data, August car sales rose 24.2% to 2.07 million (July growth of 23%), from January to August cumulative sales growth of 11.4% to 16.755 million. 1) Passenger cars: August passenger cars grew 26.3%. SUV continued high growth and lead, August sales rose 43.9% to 65.4 million, accounting for 36.4% of passenger car sales. 1.6 liters and the following displacement increased by 40.7%, accounting for 72% of passenger car sales; 2) commercial vehicles: continued to pick up, August sales rose 12.0% to 276,000, due to low base year and strong demand for logistics trucks, Heavy truck and medium card sales increased by 44.2% and 23%.

Investment Strategy: Recommended product cycle up the company and the profitability of the dealer

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The point of view is for reference only:

1) car manufacturers. Continue to watch the product cycle upwards Geely Automobile (175 HK, buy) and Brilliance China (1114 HK, buy). A) Geely Automobile is the industry preferred stock. B) recommended Brilliance China reason is optimistic about the BMW product line from this year to continue to recover next year, the second half of this year is the opportunity to buy; c) the market for SUV, the market will be the first time in the second half of this year, Leading Great Wall Motor (2333 HK, Buy) is facing excessive market competition, the company valuation is significantly lower than the industry and the company's historical average, there is upward repair space.

2) car dealers. Car dealers face recovery opportunities, the traditional car dealers are currently at the bottom of the cycle, the future performance of a rebound space. As car sales improved, automakers slowed down dealer pressure. Although the first half of the car dealer industry performance uneven, but the overall look at the new car sales and aftermarket gross margin trend to the good, the dealer's investment value highlights, concerned about the car (1728 HK, buy) and harmonious car (3836 HK, buy In).

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3) new energy automotive industry chain. (1211 HK, not rated), to the new energy vehicle battery manufacturers to transform the days of power (the new energy automotive industry, the new energy automotive industry, the new energy automotive industry, (2139 HK, not rated), high-end electric car manufacturer Harmony (3836 HK, buy), charge equipment supplier Titan Energy (2188 HK, not rated), high-end electric vehicle manufacturer